“How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives.”

— Annie Dillard

Clear thinking starts with examining what we take to be true or false. That’s why this week we’re focusing on what it means for a claim to be unfalsifiable.

A claim is unfalsifiable when there is no possible test or observation that could show it to be false. Once you internalize what this truly means, you’ll begin to notice how often people treat unfalsifiable claims as sound reasoning or use them to support claims that lack evidence.

For example, consider the claim that humans have a soul. If nothing could ever count against that claim because the soul gets defined in a way that is beyond all testing or observation, then the claim is unfalsifiable.

This is what makes unfalsifiable claims difficult to evaluate. Their unfalsifiability does not prove them false, but it also gives us no good reason to think they are true.

Being aware of this is important because it comes up in debates, politics, and everyday conversations.

Should we take unfalsifiable claims as true? Not on that basis alone.

Do you choose what you believe? If so, believe otherwise.

I encourage you to sit down and truly think about that line before you keep reading. Can you simply choose, right now, to believe otherwise?

This week, we’re going to sharpen our minds by diving into a philosophical topic. Specifically, a branch of philosophy called epistemology.

Epistemology: “the study or a theory of the nature and grounds of knowledge, especially with reference to its limits and validity” (Merriam-Webster).

Why does this question even matter? I would argue it’s one of the most important questions one can ask themselves. Beliefs shape nearly everything in our lives:

And that’s only the beginning of a very long list. 

Imagine if belief really isn’t a choice. The implications would be enormous for religion, morality, politics, and how we judge others for what they believe. 

With that in mind, let’s get into it.

Easter is a day away, so let’s use religion in this example.

I’ve seen many define belief as: to acknowledge something as true or to exist. I think they’re leaving out a crucial part and here’s why. 

Let’s imagine we’re talking to a friend who doesn’t believe in God. We ask, “Do you believe in God?” and they say, “Yes, I do.” But if they do not actually believe, then they are only pretending/lying. They’re just saying the words.

That’s why I think a better definition is this:

Belief: to be convinced that something is true or exists.

A genuine belief is a conviction. So I must ask: do you get to choose what convinces you?

Are you convinced God is real? Then convince yourself He isn’t.

Are you convinced God is not real? Then convince yourself He is.

Are you convinced you’re reading this newsletter right now? Then convince yourself you aren’t.

Belief often works like hearing an argument that suddenly makes something click. At first, you are not convinced. Then, once the reasoning finally makes sense to you, conviction follows. You do not choose that moment directly. It happens when something becomes persuasive enough to your mind. Each person has a different threshold for conviction, and we do not get to choose where that threshold is set.

I’m a strong advocate for logical, evidence-based thinking because our beliefs shape our lives and, perhaps even more importantly, the lives of others. That’s why I believe evidence should be the #1 thing that dictates conviction.

But humans often override evidence with many other things: confirmation bias, emotion, upbringing, culture, repetition, fear, comfort, identity, and the list goes on.

Even when our goal is to be evidence-based thinkers, we are often, despite our best efforts, overpowered by these other influences. We cannot fully avoid that. But we can do our best to recognize it and think more clearly, which I know is a goal for you if you’re reading this newsletter.

So let’s go over a quick summary of what we talked about.

A belief is a conviction. It is not merely something we say. It is something we are genuinely convinced is true.

Do we choose what convinces us? I would say that’s a resounding no. Something either seems persuasive enough to our mind, or it does not. We can think, reflect, and examine, but we cannot simply force ourselves to feel convinced when we are not.

So do we get to choose what we believe? I’m convinced the answer is no, and unfortunately, that conviction is out of my control.

That does not mean we have no influence at all. We can expose ourselves to new arguments, better evidence, and different ways of thinking. We can challenge our assumptions and try to be more honest with ourselves. But that final feeling of conviction is not something we can command into existence on demand.

So while we may influence what we come to believe over time, we do not directly choose our beliefs in the moment. We believe what genuinely convinces us.

But even when we do seek something out, that choice is often guided by our convictions as well. For example, when it comes to how I read the news, I use Ground News because it compiles many sources and tries to expose bias. Why do I choose Ground News? Because I’m convinced it’s the best option for getting closer to the truth and fighting bias.

Before we wrap up, I know many people will want to say, “I have free will,” and move on without really wrestling with this philosophical topic. So I want to address that objection.

I do not believe free will exists, and maybe that will be a topic for a future newsletter. But for the sake of argument, we’ll assume it does.

Many people seem to think of free will as some unlimited freedom over thought and action, but that is clearly not the case. If it were, we would all be the perfect versions of ourselves. I would be in great shape, choose only to be happy, and do many other things differently. Of course, those are things I can aim toward, but as humans we have many limitations, and conviction is one of them. Yes, you as the agent are making the choice… just not freely. 

As a reminder, the goal of this newsletter is not to tell you what to believe, but to challenge your beliefs and your way of thinking. Think deeply about this topic. Talk with friends and family about it and hear their viewpoints. Think about what this means for politics, religion, and the way our actions are shaped by conviction.

Thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed it.

Sincerely,
Dillon Kiley

P.S. I’m aiming to send one newsletter a week. But this is a hobby. I work, go to school, and have a wife and dogs, so bear with me if I miss the occasional send-out.

I’d love to spend more time writing and building this newsletter and that becomes much more realistic if this grows. So if you enjoyed this, please share it with a friend or on social media. You can share this post by sharing this link: www.sharpermindweekly.com

I appreciate it greatly!